How Predictive Analytics Demystify the iPhone 15’s Impression on the Secondary Cellular Market

Apple’s newest iPhone debuted early September and, as common, began launching delivery shortly after that announcement. This time round, the discharge consisted of a typical and Professional model, every of which can be found in two sizes, and numerous reminiscence configurations. Aside from the long-rumored transfer to USB-C—probably a must have function for some—the iPhone 15 makes no big leaps by way of efficiency or options. From a client perspective, these developments are largely iterative, and this improve cycle is much less by hype than by contract and retailer incentives.

Though the launch costs on these latest fashions should not considerably totally different than in previous years, these are nonetheless premium units starting from $800 to $1600. Understandably, customers search for any manner they’ll to deliver that worth down, and plenty of are completely content material at hand of their present system in change for credit score in the direction of their new one.

Naturally, securing these completely purposeful, still-premium trade-ins has turn out to be a precedence for carriers and retailers.

Enter the Secondary Cellular Market

The secondary market—the acquisition of pre-owned units both at a client degree or a enterprise degree—continues to develop, even quicker than the marketplace for new units. There are, the truth is, a number of causes and implications for this development.

Catalysts like COVID drove many individuals to purchase further units as they had been confined to their houses—units for youngsters’s education, distant work, leisure—and infrequently, these consumers regarded to the pre-owned market, and have stayed within the behavior because the pandemic has subsided. 

One other main issue pushing the preowned market ahead is trade-ins, a part of the the reason why iPhone and Apple launch occasions are extra necessary than ever. As any savvy client is aware of, there are seemingly infinite promotions from all US carriers all centered on recollecting you customers’ outdated telephones for reductions on newer fashions or credit in the direction of different objects or companies. This subsidy mannequin means prime quality units coming into the secondary market at the next charge than ever earlier than, and every of those will all want residence.

Earlier than discussing the iPhone 15’s launch particularly and the way it impacts the secondary market, we’ll talk about how iPhone launches have performed out traditionally with regard to the secondary market, in addition to some components that drive the iPhone market as an entire.

What Have been iPhone Launches Like in Previous Years?

In a pre-Covid world, these releases and the depreciation of Apple units was extraordinarily predictable, at all times following a really regular, simply understood curve.

pre covid iphone launch

This chart exhibits resale worth of a number of iPhone fashions as a p.c of unique retail worth over a 60-month interval.

In fact, the depreciation was fairly simple, accelerating barely in relation to new releases. In fact nothing is so simple as it was once, and massive market adjustments have created macro-level influence on used system pricing on the B2B market.

What Giant-scale, Macro-level Elements Impression the B2B Market?

Probably the most influential drivers of the B2B marketplace for preowned iPhones are as follows:

  • Rising Demand for Refurbished iPhones
    Home demand for pre-owned, licensed pre-owned, licensed renewed, refurbished units is rising. Shoppers now have a number of platforms to buy these pre-owned units and rising direct-to-consumer costs have pushed B2B pricing up, driving some fascinating developments in our knowledge and altering the form of the standard depreciation curves.
  • Provide Chain Points
    A drained topic following years of Covid shutdowns, provide chain disruptions do nonetheless happen attributable to disasters, geopolitical occasions, wars, and so forth, and these components are at all times behind our analysts minds as they take a look at cell resale knowledge.
  • Market Share
    Market share tends to ebb and circulate—we see new contenders cropping up periodically, to not point out the unending battle between Apple and Samsung for smartphone supremacy. We actually watch on the unit degree what units are making up the market as a result of that may change developments and influence pricing downstream.
  • Stock Ranges
    The essential rules of economics state that any time a producer dumps a large provide of a specific good into the market, the worth of these items will probably be impacted. And that is one other factor our analysts are expecting. On a number of events up to now, trade leaders have hit the panic button, so to talk, and launched a wave of units into the market main to cost disruption. Such occasions very a lot characterize the human factor of the market that may have observable results on the macro degree.
  • Shopper Spending & Inflation
    Whether or not they’re shopping for new or pre-owned, every client has their very own funds, and balances their cell system purchases in opposition to different monetary tasks. Whereas telephones have confirmed to be a precedence in many individuals’s lives, the state of the financial system and inflation will definitely influence what number of units are offered—particularly new units, which in flip impacts the pricing of trade-ins. 
  • Aggressive Reductions
    Apple is known for sustaining MSRP, and as a premium model with a really robust product, they very not often provide aggressive reductions and promotions. This phenomenon stays on B-Shares radar, nevertheless, as some OEMs could possibly pull enterprise away from others by these applications, or deliver new system costs down far sufficient to entice customers away from shopping for pre-owned. 

What Small-scale, Micro-Degree Points Have an effect on System Pricing? 

Probably the most influential determinants in an particular person system’s worth are as follows:

  • Age
    Unsurprisingly, the only determinant of a cellphone’s worth is its age. Shoppers merely desire newer upgraded variations over outdated variations.
  • Mannequin
    Often, if a tool mannequin is new, it has extra worth within the B2B Market, nevertheless that doesn’t essentially maintain for iPhones. For instance, Apple now provides Professional fashions of every iPhone which can be extra helpful than the bottom fashions of successive generations’ base fashions.
  • Situation
    In a vacuum, an iPhone in good situation is extra helpful and one in poor situation. An iPhone in wonderful situation will command a a lot increased worth than a comparable system displaying even mild use.
  • Service Locked States
    Unlocked telephones are inclined to deliver increased costs than locked telephones, firstly as a result of they may operate on any home community, but in addition as a result of they may operate abroad— the place many second-, third-, and fourth-hand items wind up. 
  • Seasonality
    Holidays and seasonal reductions can result in shifts in customers’ common spending patterns, and thus adjustments the quantity of stock available in the market, in flip impacting pricing. 

B-Inventory’s Predictive Toolkit 

B-Inventory has taken all of those macro and micro components into consideration in constructing out our superior machine studying algorithms. Our fashions may also help every of our sellers precisely predict—at a extremely granular degree—the B2B and B2C market costs of iPhones so far as 16-20 weeks sooner or later. For instance, it’s totally attainable to know what worth a crimson, B-Grade, carrier-locked, 256GB, iPhone 13 will fetch on our market two months from immediately.

This perception into secondary cell market pricing is the worth that B-Inventory brings to OEMs, retailers, trade-in companies, insurers, refurbishers, and third get together sellers. With years of Market knowledge and resale experience, we will empower your group to make good data-backed selections and optimize your margins. 

Knowledge, AI, Machine Studying, and Predictive Functionality 

B-Inventory has been working at scale and gathering B2B pricing knowledge for all auctions throughout all telephones since 2012. In truth, since 2017, we have now offered 34 million items in 270,000 auctions, and have used each scrap of knowledge we will to construct our proprietary B2B cell knowledge—one of many largest on the planet.

It’s this very knowledge that permits deep perception by enhanced statistical methods together with outlier detection, interpolation, and machine studying.

Outlier Detection 

Outlier detection is the method of figuring out uncommon or irregular knowledge within the historic knowledge set. For instance, fast, seemingly random spikes can and do happen in all markets, however they aren’t at all times reflective of merchandise

outlier detection

The blue arrow within the picture above signifies a spike within the secondary market worth of a C-grade iPhone 13 Professional Max—an apparent outlier that was maybe brought on by an especially excessive faulty bid or momentary market abnormality. Though the anomaly was instantly corrected, it might nonetheless throw off sure metrics, and due to this fact must be mitigated inside the knowledge set—one thing which B-Inventory handles with ease. 


In a easy phrases, interpolation is a statistical method to fill in lacking knowledge utilizing present knowledge. We use methods like spline interpolation, exponential shifting common, Okay-nearest neighbors, and extra primarily based on the cellphone grade service locked State and plenty of different components.

interpolation 1
Knowledge earlier than interpolation

interpolation 2
Knowledge after interpolation

Machine Studying

We predict the B2B preowned cell costs at a granular degree (mannequin, grade, service, locked state, et .) utilizing machine studying methods like Auto ARIMAA, KNN, XGBoost LightGBM, and DeepAR.

machine learning

The chart above graph exhibits historic and forecaster costs for iPhone 13 Professional Max unlocked grade-C. The purple line that you just see is the historic B2B per unit worth and the orange line is a weekly per-unit worth forecast for the subsequent 16 weeks, with the inexperienced space representing most variance

B-Inventory MobileMind

That is B-Inventory’s cell pricing software by which sellers may have entry to all of this historic and predicted pricing and gross sales knowledge. By means of a straightforward to make use of interface you’ll be able to filter your outcomes by 12 totally different iPhone fashions in addition to grades, carriers, and lock states, to see the market worth developments and predictions. 

mobile mind

With this data, you’ll be able to higher plan when to promote your stock and perceive what margins you’ll be able to count on, and what trade-in worth to supply to an finish consumer.

So far as accuracy is worried, our dynamic modeling course of ensures that each week, the highest performing algorithm’s output is mirrored in MobileMind’s output. For example, for various variants and situations of the iPhone 12 and 13—common trade-in units at time of writing—common prediction accuracy ranged from 96-98%.

What’s Coming Subsequent for B-Inventory’s Predictive Analytics?

To additional our purpose of enabling clever secondary market recommerce operations, B-Inventory plans to develop its MobileMind software to incorporate extra fashions and variables that may have an effect on system pricing. This work has already begun, with sights set on full pricing predictability for common Samsung fashions along with iPhone.

Additional, B-stock plans to feed increasingly info into the AI and Machine Studying fashions with the purpose of near-100% pricing accuracy. 

Regardless of B-Shares belief in its predictive capabilities, there’s nonetheless a human intelligence factor to our companies, and nice care is taken to bounce all predictions up in opposition to our group of consultants to find out if the outputs actually replicate the market with which our purchasers are literally interacting, and what phenomena the AI may not be telling us.

What’s Subsequent for Your Enterprise?

B-Inventory is engaged on delivering knowledge options to assist all sellers to drive their retail , trade-in, and insurance coverage selections by constructing this intelligence instantly into their cell resale applications. However whereas info is effective, no worth is realized till a enterprise achieves a sale—that’s why B-Inventory’s purpose is to be a very end-to-end answer—one which serves as each an integral advisory  companion and a extremely efficient market platform.

Inquisitive about how B-Inventory may also help your enterprise get probably the most out of its pre-owned cell stock? Contact us immediately.


You possibly can watch the complete webinar on this subject right here.