Foreign exchange and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 25 – 29, 2023 – Analytics & Forecasts – 23 September 2023

EUR/USD: Verbal Interventions by the Federal Reserve Assist the Greenback

● In earlier critiques, we extensively mentioned the verbal interventions made by Japanese officers who purpose to bolster the yen via their public statements. This time, comparable actions have been taken by FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) officers, led by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. At their assembly on September twentieth, the FOMC determined to keep up the rate of interest at 5.50%. This was largely anticipated, as futures markets had indicated a 99% chance of such an consequence. Nonetheless, within the subsequent press convention, Mr. Powell indicated that the battle towards inflation is way from over, and that the two.0% goal might not be achieved till 2026. Due to this fact, one other price hike of 25 foundation factors could be very a lot within the playing cards. Based on the Fed Chairman, there is no such thing as a recession on the horizon, and the U.S. economic system is sufficiently strong to maintain such excessive borrowing prices for an prolonged interval. Moreover, it was revealed that 12 out of 19 FOMC members anticipate a price hike to five.75% inside this yr. Based on the Committee’s financial forecast, this price stage is anticipated to persist for fairly a while. Particularly, the up to date forecast means that the speed might solely be lowered to five.1% a yr from now (versus the beforehand acknowledged 4.6%), and a lower to three.9% is anticipated in a two-year outlook (revised from 3.4%).

● Market members have blended beliefs about these prospects, however the reality stays that the hawkish assertions from officers have bolstered the greenback, regardless of the absence of tangible actions. It is attainable that the Federal Reserve has discovered from the errors of their European Central Financial institution (ECB) counterparts, who’ve led market gamers to imagine that the financial tightening cycle within the Eurozone has concluded. As a reminder, ECB President Christine Lagarde made it clear that she considers the present rate of interest stage to be acceptable, whereas the Governor of the Financial institution of Greece, Yannis Stournaras, acknowledged that, in his opinion, rates of interest have peaked, and the following transfer will probably be a discount. An analogous sentiment: that the September act of financial tightening was the final, was additionally expressed by Stournaras’s colleague, Boris Vujčić, the Governor of the Nationwide Financial institution of Croatia.

● Because of the Federal Reserve’s verbal intervention, the Greenback Index (DXY) soared from 104.35 to 105.37 inside only a few hours, whereas EUR/USD declined to a stage of 1.0616. Economists at Oversea-Chinese language Banking Company (OCBC) imagine that, given the Fed’s resolution to retain flexibility regarding one other price hike, it’s not advisable to anticipate a dovish flip within the foreseeable future.

Danske Financial institution strategists opine that “the Fed was as hawkish because it might be with out truly elevating charges.” Nonetheless, they contend that “regardless of the continuing strengthening of the greenback, there could also be some upside potential for EUR/USD within the close to time period.” Danske Financial institution additional states, “We imagine that peak charges, enhancements within the manufacturing sector in comparison with the service sector, and/or a discount in pessimism in the direction of China might assist EUR/USD over the following month. Nonetheless, in the long run, we preserve our strategic place favouring a decline in EUR/USD, anticipating a breakthrough under 1.0300 throughout the subsequent 12 months.”

● Knowledge on U.S. enterprise exercise launched on Friday, September 22, introduced a blended image. The Manufacturing PMI index rose to 48.9, whereas the Providers PMI declined to 50.2. Consequently, the Composite PMI remained above the 50.0 threshold however confirmed a slight dip, transferring from 50.2 to 50.1.

Following the PMI launch, EUR/USD concluded the week at 1.0645. Seventy p.c of consultants favoured additional strengthening of the greenback, whereas 30% voted for an uptrend within the foreign money pair. When it comes to technical evaluation, not a lot has modified over the practically accomplished week. All development indicators and oscillators on the D1 timeframe are nonetheless unanimously supporting the American foreign money and are colored purple. Nonetheless, 15% of them are signalling the pair’s oversold situation. The closest assist ranges for the pair lie within the 1.0620-1.0630 vary, adopted by 1.0490-1.0525, 1.0370, and 1.0255. Resistance ranges can be encountered within the 1.0670-1.0700 zone, then at 1.0745-1.0770, 1.0800, 1.0865, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0985, and 1.1045.

● As for the upcoming week’s occasions, Tuesday, September 26 will see the discharge of U.S. actual property market knowledge, adopted by sturdy items orders within the U.S. on Wednesday. Thursday, September 28 guarantees to be a busy day. Preliminary inflation (CPI) knowledge from Germany in addition to U.S. GDP figures for Q2 can be disclosed. Moreover, the customary U.S. labour market statistics can be launched, and the day will conclude with remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. On Friday, we are able to additionally anticipate a slew of serious macroeconomic knowledge, together with the Eurozone’s preliminary Client Value Index (CPI) and data concerning private consumption in the USA.

GBP/USD: BoE Withdraws Assist for the Pound

● The monetary world would not revolve across the Federal Reserve’s selections alone. Final week, the Financial institution of England (BoE) additionally made its voice heard. On Thursday, September 21, the BoE’s Financial Coverage Committee left the rate of interest for the pound unchanged at 5.25%. Whereas an identical resolution by the Federal Reserve was anticipated, the BoE’s transfer got here as a shock to market members. They’d anticipated a 25 foundation level enhance, which didn’t materialize. In consequence, the strengthening greenback and weakening pound drove GBP/USD all the way down to 1.2230.

● The BoE’s resolution was probably influenced by encouraging inflation knowledge for the UK printed the day earlier than. The annual Client Value Index (CPI) truly declined to six.7%, in comparison with the earlier 6.8% and a forecast of seven.1%. The core CPI additionally fell from 6.9% to six.2%, towards a forecast of 6.8%. Given such knowledge, the choice to pause and never burden an already struggling economic system seems affordable. This rationale is additional supported by the UK’s preliminary Providers Buying Managers’ Index (PMI) for September, which hit a 32-month low at 47.2, in comparison with 49.5 in August and a forecast of 49.2. The Manufacturing PMI was additionally reported at 44.2, considerably under the crucial stage of fifty.0.

Based on economists at S&P International Market Intelligence, these “disheartening PMI outcomes counsel {that a} recession in the UK is turning into more and more probably. […] The sharp decline in manufacturing volumes indicated by the PMI knowledge corresponds to a GDP contraction of greater than 0.4% on a quarterly foundation, and the broad-based downturn is gaining momentum with no speedy prospects for enchancment.”.

● Analysts at one of many largest banks in the USA, Wells Fargo, imagine that the BoE’s resolution indicators a lack of rate-based assist for the British pound. Based on their forecast, the present price of 5.25% will mark the height of the cycle, adopted by a gradual decline to three.25% by the top of 2024. Consequently, they argue that “on this context, a motion of the pound to 1.2000 or decrease just isn’t out of the query.”

Their counterparts at Scotiabank share an identical sentiment. New lows and powerful bearish indicators on the oscillator for short-term, medium-term, and long-term tendencies point out an elevated threat of the pound dropping to 1.2100-1.2200.

Economists at Germany’s Commerzbank don’t rule out the potential of a slight restoration for the pound if inflation outlooks considerably enhance. They imagine that the Financial institution of England has left the door open for one more price hike. The vote for sustaining the present price was surprisingly shut at 5:4, that means 4 members of the Financial Coverage Committee voted in favour of a 25 foundation level enhance. This underscores the excessive stage of uncertainty. However, as a result of weak point within the UK economic system, the outlook for the pound stays bearish.

● GBP/USD closed the previous week at 1.2237. Analyst opinions on the pair’s speedy future are evenly cut up: 50% anticipate additional downward motion, whereas the opposite 50% anticipate a correction to the upside. All development indicators and oscillators on the D1 chart are colored in purple; furthermore, 40% of those oscillators are within the oversold zone, which is a powerful sign for a possible development reversal.

If the pair continues its downward trajectory, it should encounter assist ranges and zones at 1.2190-1.2210, 1.2085, 1.1960, and 1.1800. Alternatively, if the pair rises, it should face resistance at 1.2325, 1.2440-1.2450, 1.2510, 1.2550-1.2575, 1.2600-1.2615, 1.2690-1.2710, 1.2760, and 1.2800-1.2815.

● When it comes to financial occasions impacting the UK for the upcoming week, the spotlight would be the launch of the nation’s GDP knowledge for Q2, scheduled for Friday, September 29.

USD/JPY: Lacklustre Assembly on the Financial institution of Japan

● Following their counterparts on the Federal Reserve and the Financial institution of England, the Financial institution of Japan (BoJ) held its assembly on Friday, September 22. “It was a lacklustre assembly,” commented economists at TD Securities. “All members unanimously voted to maintain coverage unchanged. The assertion was largely just like the one issued in July, and no modifications had been made to the ahead steering.” The important thing rate of interest remained on the adverse stage of -0.1%.

● The following press convention led by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda additionally disenchanted yen bulls. Ueda didn’t converse towards the weakening of the nationwide foreign money; as an alternative, he reiterated that the change price ought to mirror elementary indicators and stay secure. The central financial institution’s head additionally famous that the regulator “might take into account the potential of ending yield curve management and altering the adverse rate of interest coverage once we are assured that attaining the two% inflation goal is close to.”

Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki’s speech was additionally a typical type of verbal intervention for him. “We’re carefully monitoring foreign money change charges with a excessive sense of urgency and immediacy,” the minister declared, “and we don’t rule out any choices for responding to extreme volatility.” He added that final yr’s foreign money intervention had its meant impact however didn’t point out whether or not comparable steps might be anticipated within the close to future.

● Ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds and the USD/JPY foreign money pair are historically immediately correlated. When the yield on the bonds rises, so does the greenback towards the yen. This week, following hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve, charges on 10-year Treasuries soared to their highest peak since 2007. This propelled USD/JPY to a brand new excessive of 148.45. Based on economists at TD Securities, contemplating the rise in U.S. yields, the pair might break above 150.00. In the meantime, on the French financial institution Societe Generale, goal ranges of 149.20 and 150.30 are being cited.

● The final notice of the five-day buying and selling session sounded on the 148.36 mark. A majority of surveyed consultants (70%) agreed with the views of their colleagues at TD Securities and Societe Generale concerning the additional rise of USD/JPY. A correction to the draw back, and probably a pointy drop resulting from foreign money interventions, is anticipated by 20% of analysts. The remaining 10% took a impartial stance. All 100% of development indicators and oscillators on the D1 timeframe are colored inexperienced, though 10% of the latter are signalling overbought circumstances. The closest assist stage is within the 146.85-147.00 zone, adopted by 145.90-146.10, 145.30, 144.50, 143.75-144.05, 142.20, 140.60-140.75, 138.95-139.05, and 137.25-137.50. The closest resistance is at 148.45, adopted by 148.45, 148.85-149.20, 150.00, and at last, the October 2022 excessive of 151.90.

● No important financial knowledge associated to the state of the Japanese economic system is scheduled for launch within the upcoming week. Nonetheless, merchants could wish to mark Friday, September 29 on their calendars, as client inflation knowledge for the Tokyo area can be printed on that day.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Battle for $27,000  

● On Monday, September 18, the worth of the main cryptocurrency started to soar, pulling your complete digital asset market upward. Apparently, the explanation behind this surge was circuitously associated to bitcoin, however slightly to the U.S. greenback. Particularly, it was tied to the Federal Reserve’s selections concerning rates of interest. Excessive greenback charges restrict the circulation of investments into riskier property, together with cryptocurrencies, as giant traders want secure returns. On this case, forward of the upcoming Federal Reserve assembly, market members had been assured that the regulator wouldn’t solely chorus from elevating charges however would additionally maintain them unchanged till year-end. Driving on these expectations, BTC/USD surged, reaching a peak of $27,467 on August 19, including greater than 10% since September 11.

Nonetheless, though the speed did certainly stay unchanged, it grew to become clear following the assembly that the combat towards inflation would proceed. Due to this fact, any hopes of a shift away from the Fed’s hawkish stance ought to be put aside for now. In consequence, the worth of bitcoin reversed course. After breaking via the assist zone at $27,000, it returned to its beginning positions.

● Regardless of the latest pullback, many within the crypto neighborhood stay assured that the digital gold will proceed to rise. As an example, an analyst going by the alias Yoddha believes that bitcoin has an opportunity to refresh its native excessive within the brief time period and attain $50,000 by year-end. After which, he suggests, a correction to $30,000 could happen in early 2024, forward of the halving occasion. Blogger Crypto Rover additionally anticipates that troubles within the U.S. economic system will gas BTC’s development. If the pair manages to firmly set up itself above $27,000, he expects the worth to maneuver in the direction of $32,000.

Analyst DonAlt is of the opinion that bitcoin stands an opportunity to stage a brand new spectacular rally and replace its 2023 excessive. “If we rise and overcome the resistance we’re at the moment battling,” he writes, “the goal, I imagine, might be $36,000. […] I will not rule out lacking a very good entry at $30,000 as a result of if the worth takes off, it could rise too rapidly. [But] we now have sufficient compelling causes to additionally transfer downward. Within the worst case, I will take a minor hit if it plunges into the $19,000 to $20,000 vary.”.

● Dealer and analyst Jason Pizzino believes that bitcoin’s bullish market cycle started forming round January, and this course of continues to be not full regardless of the latest value consolidation. Based on the professional, bitcoin will verify its bullish sentiment if it crosses a key stage at $28,500. “This market has seldom seen sub-$25,000 ranges. I am not saying it will possibly’t go down, however for six months now, the weekly closings have been above these ranges. Thus far, so good, however we’re not in bull territory but. Bulls have to see closings above $26,550 at the very least often,” states Pizzino. “Bulls nonetheless have a lot to do. I will begin speaking about them as soon as we cross the white line on the $28,500 stage once more. This is without doubt one of the key ranges for bitcoin to start out transferring upwards after which attempt to break $32,000.”.

● John Bollinger, the creator of the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator, doesn’t rule out the likelihood that the main crypto asset is getting ready for a breakout. The indicator makes use of the usual deviation from the easy transferring common to find out volatility and potential value ranges for an asset. Presently, BTC/USD is forming each day candles that contact the higher band. This might point out a reversal again to the central band or, conversely, a rise in volatility and upward motion. Slim Bollinger Bands on the charts counsel that the latter state of affairs is extra probably. Nonetheless, Bollinger himself feedback cautiously, believing that it’s nonetheless too early to attract definitive conclusions.

● PlanB, the well-known creator of the S2FX mannequin, has reaffirmed his forecast made earlier this yr. He famous that the November 2022 low was the underside for bitcoin, and its ascent will start nearer to the halving occasion. PlanB believes that the 2024 halving will drive the main cryptocurrency as much as $66,000, and the next bull market in 2025 might push its value above the $100,000 mark.

Investor and best-selling writer of “Wealthy Dad Poor Dad,” Robert Kiyosaki, has excessive hopes for the halving occasion as properly. Based on the professional, the U.S. economic system is on the verge of a critical disaster, and cryptocurrencies, significantly bitcoin, provide traders a secure haven throughout these turbulent occasions. Kiyosaki predicts that the worth of bitcoin might soar to $120,000 subsequent yr, and the 2024 halving will function a key catalyst for the rally.

● In conclusion, to stability out the optimistic forecasts talked about earlier, let’s introduce some pessimism. Based on fashionable analyst and host of the DataDash channel, Nicholas Merten, the crypto market might expertise one other downturn. He cites the declining liquidity of stablecoins as an indicator. “It is a good metric for figuring out tendencies within the cryptocurrency market. As an example, from April 2019 to July 2019, bitcoin rose from $3,500 to $12,000. Throughout the identical interval, the liquidity of stablecoins elevated by 119%. Then we see a interval of consolidation the place liquidity additionally remained at a continuing stage. When bitcoin rose from $3,900 to $65,000 in 2021, the liquidity of stablecoins surged by 2,183%,” the professional shares his observations.

“Liquidity and value development are interconnected. If liquidity is declining or consolidating, the market is probably going not going to develop. That is true for each cryptocurrencies and monetary markets. For market capitalization to develop, you want liquidity, however what we’re seeing is a continuing decline in liquidity, which makes a value drop for cryptocurrencies extra possible,” Nicholas Merten states.

● As of the time of penning this overview, Friday night, September 22, BTC/USD is buying and selling round $26,525. The general market capitalization of the crypto market has remained nearly unchanged, standing at $1.053 trillion (in comparison with $1.052 trillion per week in the past). The Bitcoin Crypto Worry & Greed Index has dropped by 2 factors, transferring from 45 to 43, and stays within the ‘Worry’ zone.

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Discover: These supplies aren’t funding suggestions or tips for working in monetary markets and are meant for informational functions solely. Buying and selling in monetary markets is dangerous and can lead to a whole lack of deposited funds.

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